Augustine Ukumba, Lafia
As Nigerians go to the poll this week, precisely on Saturday February 16th, to elect new crops of leaders that will man the helms of governance of the various segments of state of affairs in the country, Nasarawa State would not be left out in making that crucial decision.
Nevertheless, the global community will be watching with keen interest if the state could break the jinx of a state governor not being able to find a place in the red chamber of the National Assembly immediately after leaving the exotic office as executive governor; for the fact that a former governor of the state, Senator Abdulahi Adamu, only realized that dream after some couple of years following the intervention of some heavyweights in his former political platform, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Therefore, the incumbent governor, Umaru Tanko Al-Makura hopes to follow the foot-steps of his contemporaries to the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria come February 16th, this year.
However the incumbent governor will be contesting on the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) against the incumbent senator and a three times representive of the Nasarawa south senatorial zone in the Senate, Suleiman Adokwe of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
By and large, the voting partern as analyzed by some watchers of political events as they unfold foresee how the electorates of the senatorial zone may likely vote as regards to the ethnic groups in the zone which is made up of the Alago, Tiv, Koro, Gwandara and the Hausa-Fulanis ethnic nationalities.
Alago
The incumbent governor is expected to share the votes of the Alago nation with the incumbent senator, Suleiman Adokwe on 50% apiece. This sharing of the Alago votes between the governor and the incumbent senator according to analysts would be based on the fact that the governor’s foot soldiers of Alago ethnic bearing who are currently working in the corridors of Al-Makura’s government would, no doubt, mobilise their arsenals to fight tooth and nail and see their principal emerged victorious at the polls.
Moreso that the analysts perceived the Alago equally voting during the senate race on either Christian or Islam basis which circumstances perceived believers of the two popular religion in the ethnic group voting basically on religious background. The envisaged scenario therefore foresee the possibility of the two major contestants for the senate race dividing the spoils of the Alago nation on 50% apiece.
Tiv
The 114,000 votes expected from this major ethnic group in the southern senatorial zone has been concluded to be 80% Al-Makura’s, while the incumbent Senator Adokwe is expected to go home with the 20% remnant.
Political pundits in the state argued that the reason for the bloc votes for the Governor Al-Makura may not be unconnected with disenchantment among the Tivs over the fact that their current representative in the senate, Senator Adokwe has a lukewarm attitude to the plights of the Tiv people as he was unable to attract infrastructure, employment to the Tiv community of the State.
However, on the other hand the Tiv, according to analysts, are comfortable with the incumbent governor to relieve Adokwe as their representative in the National Assembly this time. At different fora, leaders of the ethnic group were quoted as commending Al-Makura for including Tiv people in the running of the state as compared to previous administrations, as well as coming to their assistance at any time they encounter one form of challenge or the other. This could be attested in some sections of the the media where the president of the group’s socio-cultural body, Tiv Development Association (TIDA), Boniface Ifer was quoted.
Also, the governor’s possibility of harnessing an absolute bloc votes from the Tivs is conspicuous with the coming of Chief Clement Uhembe on board. It was observed that Uhembe, who is also the commissioner for higher education in state, is an intimidating political stategist whose advent in the cabinet of Al-Makura has redirected the political antenna of the Tiv people to Al-Makura.
Koro
This ethnic group’s votes are expected to be shared on the ratio of 70% to the governor, whereas the remaining 30% is expected to go to the incumbent Senator, Suleiman Adokwe.
Analysts argued that Adokwe’s political landmark in this group’s abode has not received acceptability among most of the natives hence the reason for them to look for another option. Moreover, the analysts foresee that the PDP has lost its glory in the Koro nation to the most sophisticated political platforms like the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). This is because since the departure of former deputy speaker of the Nasarawa State House of Assembly, Elisha Agwadu, the PDP’s image eroded completely out of the Koro nation.
However, the Governor Al-Makura’s led APC in the state has continued to flourish principally on the unrelenting efforts of eminent Koro sons and daughters who included Sonny Agassi, Wudu-Yamba Agidi, Musa Aloko, Rebecca Umaru.
To this end, it is been envisaged by watchers of political events in the zone that majority of the Koros will, no doubt, comply with their political, community and opinion leaders, who were aforementioned by giving bloc votes to the senatorial ambition of Al-Makura come February 16th.
Eggon
The Eggon people have another intimidating population where Al-Makura is envisaged to break the ranks of Dr. Haruna Kigbu, among others and pick 45% of the votes of Eggons with 55% to Adokwe.
Analysts are mindful of the fact that the recent alliance between Adokwe with Haruna Kigbu will aggressively shoot up Adokwe’s chances among the Eggon ethnic group of the southern senatorial zone.
But they were quick to observe that that alliance had since been clipped by Al-Makura with the assemblage of people who are refered to as political think-tank among the Eggon nation of the southern zone into his cabinet. Notable among them are Mrs. Eunice Kigbu, Barrister Zakari Alumaga.
The EYEWITNESS discovered that Mrs. Kigbu has been working assidously by hosting series of consultation meetings with the Eggon women folks in the zone to see that the entire Eggon populace of the zone are well mobilised to vote massively for the victory of the incumbent governor as their representative of the southern zone in the National Assembly.
Gwandaras
They form a sizeable number in the demographic structure of the zone and incidentally the ethnic group which Governor Al-Makura belongs to. There is no gain arguing here on who this Gwandara may give their decision to represent them at the National Assembly.
Consequently, Al-Makura is believed to have a field day in this zone on the election day by getting a land slide victory of 99%, if not 100, as against his arch-rival, Senator Adokwe. It could be noted that the Gwandara ethnic nationality is concentrated on the communities of Giza in Keana Local Government Area, Dadere in Obi; and on Shabu and Kwandere both in Lafia council area.
Hausa-Fulani
This set of people constitutes another powerful voting strength that could make or mar ones political dream in the southern senatorial zone of the state. It is generally perceived that Al-Makura is bond to harvest about 80% of votes from this ethnic group leaving the remaining 20% to Adokwe.