From Abel Leo Abel, Lafia

As far away as the 2027 governorship election is in Nasarawa State, a
familiar debate is rearing its head, which is zoning. But this is
political strategy which has been the fulcrum of lobby in Nigerian
politics which is still relevant in today’s Nasarawa State.

However, as regards whether it will play a pivotal in determining who
becomes the governor of Nasarawa State going forward met with a
resounding no among political analysts and stakeholders, especially
those of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which has started to
preach competence over zoning. The apt example used by many is the
2023 election where the  Peter Obi movement which proved that a
candidate can win an election without the traditional party
structures, showing that the people are looking beyond zoning and
party affiliation to elect their leaders.

As the debate rages on, attention is shifting to the Western Zone,
which is seen as the next logical destination for the next
governorship position, just as several candidates from the zone have
been mentioned as potential successors to Governor Sule.

One name that keeps popping up for possessing the required competence,
experience and pedigree within the All Progressives Congress (APC) is
Dr. Faisal Shuaib, the former Executive Director and Chief Executive
Officer of the National Primary Health Care Development Agency.
Shaibu’s experience in leadership and his reputation as a technocrat
make him an attractive candidate.

Another contender is Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada of the Social
Democratic Party (SDP), who represents the Western Senatorial District
at the National Assembly. Wadada’s legislative experience and his
influence in the zone make him a strong contender amongst others.

According to a chieftain of the APC, the party is certainly zoning the
governorship to the Western Zone. “It is the turn of the Western Zone,
and we have several qualified candidates from the zone,” he said.

However, the PDP has a different approach. According to an insider,
the party may not consider zoning and will instead hold open primaries
for all zones. “We want the best candidate to emerge, regardless of
their zone,” the insider said.

While some within the party still believe that the PDP is networking
arduously to repeat Dr. Emmanuel Ombugadu, whom they believe is the
only candidate who can compete favourably against the ruling APC in
Nasarawa State, a faction within the party believe that the move will
polarize the party thereby scuttling their chances going forward.

A PDP stalwart in Nasarawa local government who craved anonymity told
The EYEWITNESS that: “You see, Ombugadu’s performance in the 2023
election, where he contested against Governor Abdullahi Sule has made
him a household name in Nasarawa State. His reputation as a grassroots
politician and his influence among the people make him a strong
contender.”

However, a former PDP exco member from the same local government said
any such attempt to foist Ombugadu once again will not be healthy for
the party as religious and ethnic factors will be used to polarize the
party and dissuade voters, instead urging him to run for the Senate to
allow for zoning to the western zone.

The rotation of power in Nasarawa State began with Abdullahi Adamu
from the Western Zone, who served as governor for eight years from
1999 to 2007. This was followed by Alyu Akwe Doma from the Southern
Zone, who served for four years from 2007 to 2011. The power remained
in the southern zone with Umaru Tanko Al-Makura, who served for eight
years from 2011 to 2019 and Governor Abdullahi Sule from the Northern
Zone from 2019 to date. This rotation of power among the three zones
has been a delicate balance that has maintained peace and stability in
the state.

The current governor, Abdullahi Sule, from the Northern Zone, has
continued this rotation having served his first tenure running into
the second tenure which when completed would mean that the Northern
Zone would have served for eight years, maintaining the balance of
power in the state.

Alhaji Umar, a stakeholder in Nasarawa State stressed that all zones
have had a taste of the governorship position so it can now start from
any of the three zones.

However, a cross section of stakeholders from Kokona/Karu/Keffi axis
of Nasarawa state argued that zoning is still relevant adding that it
is a way of ensuring equity and fairness. Each zone should have a turn
at the governorship position.

Some where quick to point out that in terms of voting population, the
Northern Zone is the smallest and can be eclipsed by the sheer
population of the other two zones. He warned that only strict
adherence to fair rotation of the governorship seat would guarantee
the continues participation of the Northern Zone in the governorship
power play else they will continue to remain the deputy governorship
zone while Lafia anf Keffi zones produce governors.

It may however not continue to be easy ride for the ruling party as
the 2023 election has redefined the hitherto established voting
pattern in the state argued an APC stakeholder, stressing that the
2023 election exposed the voting power of each zone, and the people
are now more conscious of who becomes their leader having known their
voting strength if elections were to be conducted free and fair.

He added that the 2023 election showed that zoning is no longer a
guarantee for success, “The people are now more interested in the
acceptability and popularity of the candidate rather than their party
affiliation and the cases of Senators Wadada, Akwashiki and Onawo can
attest.”

He further stressed that the people of Nasarawa State have gone beyond
zoning and party lines as they would want a candidate who is with the
people, who understands their needs, and who has a track record of
achievements.

Zoning or not by the two leading parties however, the rumoured entry
into the fray by Hon. Gaza Gbefwi under any party makes it a different
ball game as alliances, postulations and party strongholds as we know
them today would have to be redefined. Interesting times are ahead as
political gladiators have never started consultations so early in
Nasarawa State as this time. With about six serious contenders across
three political parties we shall be eyewitnesses as it unfolds.